It was exactly a month ago when I wrote about whether the US COVID-19 death numbers could hit 100,000 or more. US has now close to 3000 new COVID-19 cases per million population(twice my worst case scenario assumption at the time of writing using Italy & Spain as benchmarks). Note that both Italy and Spain have now crossed 3000 and 4500 COVID-19 cases per million population respectively. The good news for US is the chart of its daily new COVID-19 cases is already forming a top or plateau and the worst is likely to be over, possibly over the next couple of weeks, provided they do not open up their cities too fast. Based on my revised numbers, US COVID-19 death numbers could hit 80,000-90,000, assuming 3500-4000 cases/million population and a 7% fatality rate. A 10% fatality rate will bring this number past 100,000 but still way below the 200,000 initially suggested by the US authorities.
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